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Launcher Reliability
May 4, 2009
-Keywords: Launch Vehicle Reliability, Dependability, Reliable, Dependable, Success, Failure, Rate, Demonstrated, Predicted, Shuttle, Delta II, Soyuz, Falcon, Space-X, Next Launch Probability, Demonstrated, Attempts, Consecutive-
This brief analysis has been assembled to see what the effect would be on U.S launcher success record/standings relative to the rest of the world after the Shuttle and the Delta II systems are retired. This is a record of successfully attaining orbit, not spacecraft reliability once on orbit. The Bayesian "Probability of Success" or "p.o.s". is k(lv) +1/n(lv) +2 (see attached table), so that the risk of a launcher without much of a track record is accounted for and a launcher with, say, and 0 and 1 record, isn’t given a zero probability of success.
The original data, minus the graph/sorting, and the subtraction effect/analysis is credited to Ed Kyle and http://www.geocities.com/launchreport/reliability2009.txt, the "SPACE LAUNCH REPORT, ACTIVE LAUNCH VEHICLE RELIABILITY STATISTICS" as of April 29, 2009.
The table below shows the source data used to yield the prior bar-graph.
The result of removing the Shuttle and the Delta II from the data is as follows - the shift being from U.S. Composite at 0.9543 (realized success rate) to U.S. Composite at 0.8554, as compared to Foreign Composite Realized Success Rate of 0.9465.
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For further information about this analysis work contact Carey McCleskey at NASA Kennedy Space Center.
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Also see:
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Website Contact: Edgar Zapata, NASA Kennedy Space Center